Evidence guide

Financial forecast evidence for licence applications

How to prepare business-plan assumptions, revenue, cost, headcount, regulatory budget, stress case, runway, and financial forecast evidence.

Applicant questions

  • - What revenue, expenses, headcount, capital, compliance, vendor, insurance, and technology costs support the business plan?
  • - What changes if licence approval, fundraising, clients, or revenue takes longer than expected?
  • - Do the forecasts match the requested permissions and operating model?

Why regulators ask

  • - Forecasts help regulators judge whether the applicant is realistic, resourced, and able to meet obligations.
  • - Financial forecasts connect capital, people, outsourcing, technology, compliance, and wind-down planning.
  • - Over-optimistic forecasts can make the entire application narrative less credible.

What good looks like

  • - The forecast reconciles to business plan, capital evidence, headcount, vendors, and regulatory costs.
  • - Base-case and stress-case scenarios are clearly explained.
  • - Revenue assumptions are tied to client type, launch timing, permissions, and market constraints.

Documents to prepare

  • - Three-year forecast.
  • - Revenue assumption memo.
  • - Headcount and vendor cost plan.
  • - Stress-case forecast.
  • - Capital runway and regulatory cost budget.

Red flags

  • - Revenue starts before licence approval or before realistic onboarding timelines.
  • - Compliance, audit, custody, technology, insurance, or reporting costs are missing.
  • - The stress case does not change cash runway or capital planning.

Build steps

  1. 1. Build costs before revenue assumptions.
  2. 2. Tie headcount, vendors, and controls to the requested regulated activities.
  3. 3. Prepare a stress case and explain management actions.

Disclaimer

Information on LicenseCompare is for general educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, regulatory, financial, tax, investment, or professional advice. Licensing requirements depend on facts and change over time. Always consult official regulator materials and qualified professional advisers.